Bill Janeway on Productive Bubbles (2015)

In a bubble you stop worrying about whether there’s gonna be more money behind you. The coordination failure through time is eliminated. That’s the functional role that bubbles can play at the frontier of the innovation economy. And this is simply a-a follow on to suggest theoretically that you should expect to see in bubble conditions riskier start-ups, further out crazier ideas, ones that might require so much money to get going. “Geez we’re gonna start a new automobile company. From scratch?” That only under something resembling bubble conditions would anybody take it seriously. And then Nanda and Rhodes-Kropf went out and actually looked at the data and what they found was that going back now 15 years start-ups that were founded during the dotcom, telecom, internet bubble at the end of the 90’s had a, a bimodal distribution. It wasn’t a normal distribution. More of them failed completely. But those that succeeded, succeeded bigger. There was an actual empirical demonstration of the phenomenon of financing risk that they talked about and the coordination failure that a bubble solves.

Source: Bill Janeway on Productive Bubbles 

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